Name: Mikhail Grabovski
Height: 5’11
Weight: 182 lbs
Experience: 8th Pro Season
Contract: $2,900,000 (Jumping to $5.5 for 2012/13)
Stats: 71GP, 23G, 28A, 51PIM, Even
See below for all advanced stats formulas. It helps!
Corsi Relative: 14.9
- A Corsi relative score of 14.9 indicates that for every 60 minutes Mikhail Grabovski plays at even strength, compared to every 60 minutes that he is not on the ice, the Maple Leafs get a net of 14.9 more shot attempts than the opposition.
- Grabovski ranks first amongst all Maple Leafs in this category, which is widely believed (amongst those who actively use advanced stats) to be one of the key success factors for becoming a winning team. Shooting percentages will likely even out over time and revert to historical averages but if you continue to direct more shots on net than the opposition you are putting yourself in a good position to win.
- Much like some of the younger Leafs (Jake Gardiner/Matt Frattin) Grabovski could benefit from taking more shots on net. His 163 shots placed him in 137th in the league. If that number were to improve to approximately 200 shots per season Grabovski would easily be approaching the 30 goal plateau on an annual basis.
- I know what you’re thinking right now: ‘If Grabovski doesn’t take that many shots, how is his Corsi Relative score that good?’ The answer is simple…he is the best two way player on the Maple Leafs. Despite not taking that many shots himself, he puts his teammates in a position to get shots on net and restricts the oppositions chances. Given that Brian Burke does not believe in advanced statistics, it’s safe to say that he fell as backwards into one of the best all around forwards in the NHL.
Quality of Competition: 0.686
- This result indicates that Mikhail Grabovski did very well against the oppositions top two lines during any given 60 minutes of even strength play.
- The line of Kulemin – Grabovski – McCarthur was relied upon heavily this year to be both an offensive catalyst and a defensive shut-down group. They were able to dominate some of the opponents more talented players and have provided Toronto with one of the NHL’s better second line groupings. If JVR can play Center between Kessel and Lupul, as Carlyle has stated he will try, this team could be on a big upswing offensively.
On/Off Ice +/-: 0.85
- On Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: 0.05
- Off Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: -0.80
- Mikhail Grabovski finished the season at even which is an impressive result given that the Maple Leafs gave up 34 more goals than they scored, this bodes well for Grabovski’s contribution to the team.
- His on/off ice +/- of 0.85 ranked him first amongst all Maple Leafs last season. If the Leafs could find a true #1 center to play ahead of him, Grabovski would rank as one of the best #2’s in the league.
Face-Off Zone Starts: Offensive Zone Start: 53% of the time. (Finishes there 52%)
- Toronto’s ‘second line’ this season was pretty much used in all situations and this is just further evidence of that fact. They are effective in all zones and were one of Randy Carlyle’s most consistent groups this season.
- Grabovski was third on the Maple Leafs with a 51.5% face-off win percentage, which is not off the charts and does not warrant starting him in one zone only (Manny Malhotra).
Top Linemate: Nikolai Kulemin
- Absolutely no shock here; Grabovski played with Kulemin during 63% of his even strength shifts…if you watched half of the games this season you could have come to this conclusion as well.
- One point that I did find odd in researching the top linemate category is that Grabovski actually played 225 less minutes than Phil Kessel last season. Given Grabovski’s overwhelmingly better advanced stats this is a bit of a surprise to me, since it is clear that Grabo can play in more situations than Kessel.
Conclusion:
- Overall the advanced stats show that Mikhail Grabovski was one of the Maple Leafs most efficient players and contributed the most to their season.
- The Leafs possession statistics and +/- were better when he was on the ice which indicates that he was adding to the Leafs success more than he was taking away from it.
- Grabovski’s quality of competition was reasonably strong so his excellent numbers from this season are by no means inflated. He produced against the other teams better forwards, which bodes well for Leafs Nation going forward.
- If Grabovski can direct more shots at net next season, his corsi relative score and his goal totals will be slightly improved, which is a scary proposition for opposing teams.
Stay tuned for the next installment of Maple Leafs Advanced Stats Analysis, featuring the Leafs breakout player of 2011/12, Carl Gunnarsson
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Thanks to Behind The Net for compiling the Advanced Stats.
Legend:
Corsi Number = (Shots on Target For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots Against ) – (Shots on Target Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots For)
Corsi Relative = (Corsi Number of Player X) – (Corsi of Team with player X not on the ice)
On/Off Ice +/- = (On Ice +/- per 60 minutes) – (Off Ice +/- per 60 minutes)
Corsi Relative QoC = The weighted relative corsi of a player’s opposition
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